International peanut prices may rise further, and rising peanut oil is difficult to suppress

Recently, the increase in the price of small packaged oil has led to heated market discussions. The peanut oil price started first. According to media reports, peanut oil producers such as Luhua, Orchid Flower, and Golden Dragon Fish, which accounted for the bulk of market share, have proposed to increase prices, and Luhua raises prices by 5-10%.

Whether the price of oil has risen or not has violated the NDRC's “limit order”, and market opinions have been mixed. However, the increase in costs did put pressure on peanut oil prices.

Recently, the international peanut price has risen to a high of 30 years, and the quoted price in the Port of Rotterdam exceeds US$2,000/ton, while domestic peanut prices are even higher than international prices.

From the perspective of the main producing country, the largest peanut output in the world is China, followed by India. In addition, the United States and Argentina have a certain amount of peanut production.

In India, this year, in the country’s main peanut-growing region, Gujarat suffered a severe drought, resulting in a decline in peanut plantings. From June 1st to June 29th, the state received only 17-44mm of rainfall while the normal rainfall was 80-120mm. In addition, since the price of cotton has risen greatly since last year, Indian farmers have switched to planting cotton, which has also reduced the area of ​​peanut crops.

In the United States, the growth of peanuts was also affected by bad weather. As of July 3, the good rate of peanuts was 30%, compared with 72% in the same period last year. The recent rains have made things better, but the growth pattern remains uncertain.

In China, due to the strong demand from domestic consumers for peanut oil, coupled with the loss of crop production in 2010, domestic peanut prices have been higher than global prices. In May, China’s peanut exports fell by 14% from last year to 24,000 tons.

Argentine businessmen are reluctant to sell because the global market is increasingly dependent on peanuts in the country. In addition, due to weather conditions, the harvest of peanuts in Argentina was continued, resulting in a shortage of global peanut supplies.

From this point of view, peanut prices are not unilateral domestic crude oil, but the global peanut production country in different degrees of production cuts, resulting in imbalance between supply and demand of peanuts. Market analysis believes that if the peanut crops in India and the United States continue to be threatened, the international peanut prices may further increase. The domestic consumer market has a high degree of recognition of peanut oil and a low level of consumer substitution. Therefore, due to rising costs, the increase in peanut oil prices may be difficult to curb.