Two-and-a-half-transaction cotton farmer wants to follow

Since the temporary purchase and storage of cotton on September 8th, there has been no transaction in the two weeks ending on the 21st. Feng Mengxiao, Information Director of China Cotton Information Center, told the “Economic Information Daily” reporter that the reason why the purchase and storage did not take place was that the new cotton had not been listed in large quantities. Second, both the acquirer and the seller had a wait-and-see attitude.扛 扛 扛 扛 扛 , , , , , , , , , ,, etc.

In fact, due to the news of cotton buying and storage, since March, the “swollen” drop in cotton prices has stabilized since mid-August. On the 21st, China's cotton price index (grade 328) was 1,872 yuan per ton, which was an increase of more than 500 yuan per ton compared to the beginning of September.

However, for cotton farmers, such a price is not a small drop from last year. In accordance with the standard level of 19,800 yuan / ton lint storage and storage, the price converted into seed cotton is about 4.3 yuan / kg. The average purchase price of seed cotton in 2010 reached 5.2 to 5.5 yuan/kg, and the highest even exceeded 7 yuan/kg.

Huang Junfei, manager of the Yangtze River Futures Research and Consulting Department, told the Economic Information Daily that last year cotton farmers in October and November received very good returns. Therefore, this year also has such expectations, and hopefully the market price will further increase.

According to a survey conducted by the Cotton Association of China on the six major cotton producing provinces, due to the high price of cotton last year, the income of grain and other economic crops has also increased significantly, and farmers have high expectations for the purchase price of new cotton. It is generally hoped that the purchase price of seed cotton will be higher. 5 yuan/kg or more.

It is understood that due to cotton farmers reluctant to sell, there are still a large number of cotton farmers in the hands of the previous year in the Yellow River Basin. Zhang Qinggui, manager of Guifa Cotton Co., Ltd. in Dongchangfu District, Liaocheng City, Shandong Province, estimates that there are still 30% to 40% of Chen Cotton on the market. "Fortunately, if the storage conditions of cotton are good, it can be put in for a long time. Farmers can keep it and wait for the arrival of the next peak price."

While cotton prices have fallen this year, the continued rise in the cost of growing cotton further eroded the income of cotton farmers. According to the latest analysis by the Cotton Research Institute of the Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, the material and labor costs of cotton planting continue to increase. It is expected that the annual cost will increase by at least 202.1 yuan/mu to 1444.7 yuan/mu, or about 14%. Due to the substantial increase in costs, it is expected that the revenue of the three major producing areas will be reduced by 20% to 40%.

Jiang Zuowen, a villager in Yantun Village, Yuji Town, Dongchangfu District, Liaocheng City, Shandong Province, has been continuously growing cotton for four years, but it has been growing less year-on-year. He told reporters that the mechanization of planting cotton and collecting cotton is low, it is time-consuming and laborious, and it is far better to work for money and earn more money.

Although cotton farmers are looking forward to higher cotton prices, textile companies that have been buying stockpiles and increasing cotton prices in the market last year were “quiet”. The person in charge of a large textile company in Shandong told reporters that due to the global economic downturn, the price of textiles and garments has not risen. In addition, the lack of acquisition funds has made it unrealistic for textile companies to raise cotton prices.

Zhou Yu, the head of the first cotton textile factory in Wuxi City, Jiangsu Province, told the Economic Information Daily that the cotton has a financial nature. There was a hype last year. But this year, textile companies are more cautious and how much to buy, the price of cotton will not rise significantly.

"On the one hand, enterprises wait and see, on the one hand cotton farmers reluctant to sell, this kind of stalemate will not change for a while." Feng Mengxiao believes that only when the new cotton batch is actually listed, the situation will be clear.

Huang Junfei believes that from the progress of destocking, cotton and cotton stocks have reached a low level, and now cotton yarn is being destocked. In the peak season of cotton seasonally listed in October, textile companies will face a concentrated supplement. Now the market is concerned about whether there will be some new variables. For example, once export growth can drive sales volume, the confidence of the entire market will increase substantially.