Analysis on the Production Prospect of Sericulture in China in 2006 In 2005, the silk industry in China continued to maintain its momentum of rapid development. At present, both the output of silkworm cocoon and the output of silk, as well as the domestic sales and export prices of silk, have maintained a good running trend. According to the statistics of 20 major sericultural provinces (cities, districts) across the country, the total mulberry garden area in China was 762,200 hectares (11,433,000 mu) in 2005, which was basically the same as in 2004, and the income of silkworm farmers reached more than 12 billion yuan; 170.576 million pieces, an increase of 10.23% over 2004; cocoon production 548,300 tons, an increase of 6.86%; the annual average purchase price of 975.76 yuan / 50 kg, an increase of 179 yuan over 2004, an increase of 22.27%. The total output value of the silk industry was 130 billion yuan, an increase of 17.5%; the profit was 3.2 billion yuan, an increase of 17%; the silk production was 130,000 tons, an increase of 22.9%; the silk fabric was 7.5 billion meters, an increase of 9.7%; silk product sales Income was 125 billion yuan, an increase of 17.3% year-on-year. Silk exports continued to grow. In 2005, exports of real silk products were 3.752 billion U.S. dollars, a year-on-year increase of 15.60%. II. Forecast of Silk Market in 2006 (I) Analysis of the recent rise in silk prices 1. The demand for silk yarn continues to grow 2. Cocoon production cannot keep up with demand growth 3, high-quality, high-grade silk yarn demand grows faster 4, processing capacity to boost the market (II) Market bad forecast 1. Limited increase in spring production in 2006 2, high-priced raw materials to promote the contradiction between supply and demand ease 3. Slower export growth in 2006 (C) 2006 silk yarn market continues to look good 1. Domestic and foreign demand continues to grow (1) The approval of the silk master marketing market on the supply and demand conditions and price trend of China's silk yarn indicates that international silk demand is expected to be good. The above situation not only shows the international market's recognition of the changes in the supply and demand of silk reel in China, but also shows that the demand for silk consumption is increasing. (2) The demand of raw materials for processing enterprises will maintain the growth momentum III. Prospect Analysis of Sericulture Production in 2006 First, in the past, the main selling market was weak, and the development of sericulture was difficult. From a foreign perspective, many years ago, after the crisis in the western economy that began in the early 1990s, growth was slow and the international market continued to be weak. China's silk exports encountered many problems and difficulties. The serious difficulties of the above-mentioned main sales market are self-evident to an export-oriented silk industry whose export volume of raw materials accounts for more than 50% of total silk merchandise exports. Second, the domestic management system is not smooth, and its regulatory ability is weak. Third, the export of economic recovery increased, and institutional reforms opened up the market. Fourth, improve market allocation and enhance macro-control capabilities. Fourth, seize the opportunity to speed up the development of sericulture production.
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In my county and the country, the development of sericulture has maintained a good momentum. The county has 34,000 mu of mulberry fields, 42,000 boxes of silkworm eggs, 1760 tons of silkworm cocoons, 37.10 million yuan of farmers' cocoon, and 1920 yuan of sericulture. Planting mulberry sericulture has become one of the important sources of Jixi farmers' family income.
The silk industry that has maintained rapid growth for many years has fully demonstrated that the influence of China’s silk products is continuously expanding, and its status in the world silk industry is increasingly increasing. China is moving forward from the big silk country to the strong silk country. Chinese silk is also becoming a new "Silk Road" for friendly exchanges with people of all countries in the world, especially overseas Chinese.
The rise and fall in prices of silk yarns, changes in market conditions, national policy factors, and speculation and speculation are the reasons. However, the most basic one is decided by the relationship between production and sales and supply and demand. The price of reeling silk after the beginning of November has skyrocketed. The fundamental analysis of its production and sales and supply and demand is mainly due to the tight supply of reeling silk in the second half of 2003, and the continuous increase in the contradiction between the supply of silk reelings.
Calculated according to customs statistics, since 2003, after offsetting imports of silk, the amount of full-product exports has been growing at a rate of more than 10% for three consecutive years. In recent years, domestic sales of silk have continued to grow. Domestic and foreign sales have jointly boosted the demand for silk yarn. According to statistics, between 2003 and 2005, the amount of silk needed for domestic and foreign sales was about 94,700 tons, 105,300 tons and 118,000 tons respectively, and the annual growth was also above 10%.
In recent years, the production of cocoon in major producing areas such as Guangxi and Yunnan has increased substantially, but the production in the eastern part of China and many other production areas in the central and western regions have not increased much or have reduced production. The total amount of cocoon in the country has not increased much. There is also a decline in the year. According to the statistics of China National Silk Import and Export Corporation, from 2003 to 2005, the production of silkworm cocoon was approximately 5.004 million tons (approximately 8.52% reduction in output), 550,100 tons (approximately 9.93% increase in output), and 584,200 tons (approximately 6.86% increase in output). ). According to the above figures, the amount of silkworm needed for 2003-2005 was about 580,000 tons, 640,000 tons and 710,000 tons, respectively. Therefore, judging from the total amount, the gap in the supply of reeling silk is continuously increasing, and the contradiction of supply exceeding demand is deepening year by year.
Due to the advanced production equipment, popular consumer fashion, and the extension of the consumer field, the demand for high-quality, high-quality silk yarns continues to increase, while at the same time production of silk yarns in our country cannot keep pace with demand. . The problem in 2005 was even more pronounced. There was a general phenomenon of high-quality silk and high-grade silk.
In recent years, the state has adjusted the silk processing capacity, but the effect is not obvious. At this stage, China's actual processing capacity is much greater than the approved processing capacity. Based on the current national silk production capacity that has been approved, according to the conservative demand for silkworm cocoons and silk factory production time, the cocoon gap required for the production of cocoon silk in China will exceed 50%. In particular, when the prices are good, silk production companies will start production at full capacity, and the demand for raw materials will expand rapidly. In addition, some operating and production companies may accumulate rayon (waiting for prices) and push up the already high prices. Therefore, this flexible performance of processing capacity plays a role in boosting the market trend.
Domestic and foreign industry insiders believe that if prices rise or fall, the most important thing is to maintain a relatively stable market environment. However, the desire is always at a distance from the objective reality. The long-term high price operation will not only stimulate production but also inhibit consumption. Therefore, we must objectively analyze the industry’s negative trend since the second half of 2005 in order to make correct judgments and decisions for guiding future sericulture production.
In spring 2006, due to the shortage of silkworm production in some major production areas, the actual feeding capacity of silkworm eggs did not increase. Even if stimulated by the record price in 2005, the enthusiasm of mulberry silkworm breeding in many areas was high, and the production of spring waxworms increased in 2006. The range is very limited.
The nation’s silk processing companies are facing increasing raw material prices. Although there is still a certain cost to absorb and absorb the capacity, as time goes by, if the prices of the products on the previous and the next road cannot be “matched†or severely upside down, the factory will have difficulty. It will be bigger and bigger, the bad will be reduced, and it will naturally reduce production. This change in the production structure and consumption structure of silk will directly reduce the demand for raw materials, and the contradiction between raw material supply and demand will ease.
In 2005, due to various reasons, the export of silk was relatively strong, with a higher increase. Customs statistics show that although the overall export momentum has remained strong since the second half of the year, the export of raw materials has started to show signs of slowing down. In addition, the proportion of total silk exports to the main marketing market in the total merchandise exports has a declining trend, especially for the United States, India, Japan, South Korea, the increase in export wire volume fell, the amount of wire exports to Hong Kong decreased. It can be foreseen that the total amount of export momentum in the first half of 2006 and the whole year will increase, and the growth rate will slow down.
According to some international economic organizations and agencies, it is expected that the world economy in 2006 will face less challenges, but it will still be optimistic on the whole. Although the U.S. economic growth rate has obviously slowed, Fed Chairman Greenspan said that its economy has maintained a great momentum; Japan’s economy has entered a stage of stable recovery and benign development; the euro zone has become increasingly active due to its increasingly active consumption and investment. Growth is expected to increase. According to the report of the Ministry of Commerce of the People's Republic of China, China’s economy is still in a relatively stable growth period in 2006. This will undoubtedly create a good foundation for the growth of domestic and foreign commodity market demand, and it will be very beneficial to the domestic and foreign sales of silk in China.
Since 2005, the main sales market for silk exports in China has responded positively to the supply and demand conditions and prices of China's silk. According to the Japanese Raw Silk Association, in the fourth quarter of 2005, prices of raw silk (19/21D, 4A) exported to Japan by Zhejiang, Shandong, Jiangsu, and Sichuan provinces increased by 19.38%, 19.54%, 17.05%, and 18.33% respectively over the same period of last year. In the past two months, the average price of raw silk in Yokohama Commodity Exchange has risen by more than 16%. The European silk industry believes that the world’s silk inventory is now the lowest level in 10 years. In 2005, the production and quality of some of China's major high-quality production areas, such as Jiangsu and Zhejiang, saw a sharp decline in production. High-grade raw silk was increasingly difficult to find, and silk prices rose rapidly. In late November, the European market accepted a silk price of US$32 per kilogram. By early 2006, the price of silk rose to US$40 per kilogram (Grade 5A).
According to the summary report of the Silk Autumn Fair 2005 of the China Silk Import and Export Chamber of Commerce, the average price of silks traded at the fair was US$26.42 per kilogram, an increase of 56.61% year-on-year, of which the trade price of the factory filaments reached US$32.5 per kilogram, a year-on-year increase of 52.4%. The average price of billet traded was US$2.22 per meter, a year-on-year increase of 19.35%. In addition, the transaction volume increased by 143.8% compared with the Autumn Fair in 2004, in which the volume and amount of silk increased by 70% and 166.4% year-on-year, respectively; the volume and amount of green silk increased by 48% and 79.98% respectively.
According to the silk factory, rising raw material prices are the main reason for their increased difficulties. Especially since the second half of 2005, the decline in the quality of silkworm cocoons is another important reason for the increase in cost. The silk factory pays attention to the scale and the product grade, and the silk factory with a certain scale and grade is relatively high. Silk enterprises in the eastern region have higher raw material costs and other costs due to advanced technological equipment, higher productivity levels, and higher labor productivity. This has led them to further control costs and bring their own profit margins. In recent years, silk mills and silk mills have generally had better profits. Most companies believe that through various control measures, they still have a certain ability to bear the cost of high-priced raw materials. If the prices of downstream products can gradually keep pace, the difficulties of the factories will be eased, and the demand for raw materials will be better.
2. The amount of imported silk in China is greatly reduced
According to customs statistics, the amount of silk imported from January to December 2005 decreased by 51.62% compared with the same period of last year. The sharp decline in the volume of imported silk has, to a certain extent, increased the pressure on domestic raw material supply.
3, long-term existence of silk yarn supply
(1) In the autumn of 2005, due to the disastrous climate, P.fabri mulberry and silkworm diseases and insect pests were caused. The production of silkworm eggs was greatly reduced, and the silkworm strains were severely in short supply. As a result, the yield increase of spring silkworms was limited in 2006, and it was difficult to solve the contradiction of shortage of silk fabrics.
(2) There are many factors that restrict the production of sericulture, which slows down the growth rate of silkworm cocoon production. For example, the process of industrialization in developed areas has been accelerating, land for urban construction has continued to increase, and more land has been destroyed. In many areas, rural income has been diversified, and the income from mulberry and silkworm rearing has been reduced to a secondary level; cocoon production and other efficient economic crops and species have been reduced. The comparative benefits of maintaining the industry have weakened; the development of silkworms has been weak; the price of agricultural materials and means of production has risen, and the labor cost has increased; the number of migrant workers has increased; the number of left-behind labor has decreased; some sericulture regions have low industrialization levels and one-stop production service systems are out of line. It is difficult to promote the implementation of conventional and practical technologies, and silkworm cultivators are vulnerable to morbidity, low yield, poor industry stability, and farmers' concerns about the development of sericulture production. The existence of these restrictive factors makes it difficult for many places to develop sericulture faster. The overall scale of sericulture lags behind and long-term deficiencies become possible.
From the above-mentioned national cocoon production and domestic and foreign market demand situation, it is difficult to fill the gap in supply of reeling silk accumulated in recent years in 2006. Therefore, it is expected that the reeling market will continue to look promising in 2006, but it will play a role in negative factors. In the second half of the year, prices may gradually return to a reasonable price, and this good situation will remain for a long time.
At present, China's silk industry is in a period of good development opportunities that have been rare for more than a decade. Faced with the rising prices of silk yarns since 2005, many people have the lingering fear that the high price of silk products will be a low point, and will maintain a negative attitude towards the development of silkworm mulberry. In fact, the competitiveness of the silk industry in China is now significantly enhanced, and the international environment is not the same. Compared with the ups and downs over 10 years ago, it is in many ways different.
At that time, Japan was a major consumer of silk raw materials in China. Since April 1, 1995, Japan has eliminated the implementation of the raw silk import monopoly system for nearly 20 years and implemented a free import tariff system, which has been operating for many years mainly through government agreements. The daily raw silk trade has brought great influence. At the same time, China is faced with strong competition and challenges from Brazil and other countries, which has made it more difficult for China's silk commodities to enter the Japanese market. In addition, the popularity of Japanese dresses and the consumption of silk and kimono have gradually decreased. In the European market, due to the impact of cheap silk garments (especially sand-washed garments) and other manufactured products, the European silk processing industry has shrunk sharply, and the demand for raw silk and bad silk has dropped significantly. The U.S. market is also affected by low-cost clothing, and there is a large stock of inventory and market saturation. Europe and the United States have also started to impose unilateral quota restrictions on China’s exports, which has severely hindered the export of silk products in China. India also suffered from low prices, the market was chaotic and prices fell. In the face of these silk sales in the main market, the Hong Kong and Macau markets, which are mainly engaged in re-export business, are also very difficult.
From the domestic point of view, due to problems in the management system and other issues, the over-expansion of silk processing capacity, and the rush to purchase raw materials to boost prices have misled and stimulated the development of the sericulture industry. Moreover, cocoon warfare directly led to a decline in the quality of silkworm cocoons, making the quality of silk products generally poorer. , Processing companies generally suffer losses due to the sharp rise in production costs. Due to the drop in export tax rebate rate and the appreciation of the renminbi, as well as the rise in the cost of silk swaps (the cost of foreign currency exchange in the first half of 1995 was as high as 8.50 yuan), the loss of export companies increased. Facing the sluggish demand in the international market, China's silk industry has experienced a serious situation in which production exceeds sales and oversupply, resulting in a large area of ​​cut mulberry. The country has destroyed more than 42% of sangda and has caused huge losses in sericulture production. Due to the length of the silk industry chain and the constraints of other factors at that time, the ability to adapt was poor and the “turning head†was slow. As a result, the silk industry in China has continued to struggle for many years.
Since 2000, the world economy has recovered and the demand for silk in the international market has gradually increased. Especially with the transfer of industries in Europe and other developed countries and regions, the structure of production of silk and the structure of consumption of raw materials have changed. China's silk industry carried out deepening reforms, made major adjustments in product structure, independently developed new products, and actively explored domestic and foreign markets. Exports of silk fabrics, garments and other products accounted for more than 65% of total silk merchandise exports, leading to the continuous growth of the entire silk exports and the gradual improvement of the economic benefits of the industry. With the promotion of international consumer fashion, people’s environmental protection With increased awareness and improved quality of life, coupled with innovations in production technology and increased technological content in products, the value of “fiber queens†has been restored and improved. Silk has been used not only for people’s wear, but also for consumption. The major extensions, changes in production structure and consumption structure have greatly expanded the demand side of silk and increased the demand for its international market. The situation in recent years shows that China’s overall national strength has been enhanced, people’s living standards have increased substantially, domestic sales of silk have continued to rise, domestic demand has increased significantly, and the mutual supplementation and adjustment of the domestic and foreign sales of reeling silk have become increasingly apparent, bringing about the healthy development of China’s silk industry. Bright prospects.
In recent years, silk production in the industrially advanced regions of eastern China has gradually declined, and silk production in the central and western regions has begun to rise. This “retreat†and “starting up†has slowed the growth rate of the national silk production scale, and the total domestic and international demand has rapidly increased. Increase, so the stable growth of the silk industry will continue for a long period of time. At the same time, the advancement of technological advancement, industrialization and large-scale production of the production; the modern information society has brought the distance between the domestic and foreign markets and the domestic industrial chains closer, accelerated the transmission of information, enhanced the ability of the industry to “rise ups and downsâ€, and gradually improved the market economy. Environment, the role of the “Jiaxing Index†wind vane in the Chinese silk market, and the improvement in the production and operation of the industry in terms of the adjustment and adjustment of the situation. In particular, the country’s economic macro-control has become increasingly perfect, making the tangible and intangible “two hands†role. Complementing each other, all of these will play a positive role in protecting the healthy development of the silk industry, thereby reducing the probability of industry ups and downs and their difficulties. In short, the overall industry development prospects are more optimistic.
To sum up, we must seek truth from facts to analyze the current situation of geographical analysis, profoundly sum up historical experience and lessons, grasp the laws of market economy operation, and firmly seize the historical opportunity that is in vain. We should further enlarge and strengthen our county's silk and silk advantage industries. On the one hand, we must increase publicity, strive for initiative, and actively guide and encourage the majority of silkworm farmers to make full use of the winter and spring to plant more mulberry trees and develop high-yield mulberry gardens so as to lay a foundation for the development of sericulture production. On the other hand, we must rationalize and coordinate the relationship between the county's silk, trade, industry and farmers and promote the healthy development of the industry. Grab the source, produce high-quality silkworm eggs, allow farmers to raise "rest assured that", to achieve the production of high-quality silkworm cocoons, to provide high-quality source materials for the silk industry, to achieve the production of high-grade raw silk, so that the cocoon and silk industry mutual promotion of sound development.
At the beginning of this year, the county government reviewed the situation, timely introduced the mulberry subsidies and preferential policies to support the vast number of silkworm farmers. To this end, the county has planted 1.85 million mulberry trees, developed more than 2,500 acres of high-yield mulberry fields, and planted the latest high-yield varieties of mulberry trees. If the farmers are supported every year to plant 2 million saplings and develop more than 2,500 acres of high-yielding mulberry fields, and adhere to five years (including the “Eleventh Five-Year Planâ€), the mulberry area in our county will reach 40,000 mu (including the reconstructed old mulberry garden ), silkworm cocoon output reached 3,000 tons, it can effectively alleviate the shortage of silk raw materials in our county, and farmers' silkworm cocoon income reached 70 million yuan, more than double the current.
At present, the prominent problem in the production of sericulture in our county is the chaos in the silkworm seed market. There are a large number of private illegally seeded varieties, which seriously disturbs the unified layout of the county's silkworm varieties, directly affects the purity of the Zhuangkou, and it is difficult to produce high-grade raw silk due to mixed varieties, which seriously hinders the improvement of silk enterprises. benefit. At the same time, private cropping brings in inferior and toxic silkworm species, which not only causes economic losses to farmers, but also poses a huge hidden danger for the development of Jixi Sericulture. Therefore, the silk industry in our county must support each other internally. Silk enterprises strongly support the agricultural sector in the management of the silkworm breeding market and crack down on private illegally managing silkworm species. Under the economic support of the silk industry, the agricultural sector has adopted a variety of measures to control private cropping and low-cost seeding so that privately-run silkworm species are not profitable, and private cropping naturally ceases. The agricultural sector must also actively serve silk enterprises, and in accordance with the requirements of silk enterprises, introduce and release multifilament high-silk silkworm varieties to create conditions for the production of high-grade raw silk and improve economic efficiency. All departments of the silk industry in the county can only promote each other and support each other. In a situation where the silk market is in good conditions, stable and healthy development can be achieved. Conversely, within a county, mutual interests cannot be emphasized by the overall interests of the whole. The scale of silkworm cocoon production stagnates, and the variety of silkworm cocoons is mixed. The quality of silkworm cocoons is declining. Even if the market conditions are very good, the silk industry that depends entirely on the quality of silk cocoons will not be able to develop well.
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Analysis on the Production Prospect of Sericulture in China in 2006